Growing debt: A potential obstacle in the global recovery?

After nearly a decade of extreme monetary policies, barely visible inflation, and meager economic growth, some signs of economic improvement going into 2018 have finally given investors something to cheer about. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2017 improved in many economies. Equity markets have been strong, albeit with some volatility in early 2018, and the effects of US tax reform and other fiscal policies appear to be stimulative.

Yet below the surface of this burgeoning economic recovery lies one important factor: growing levels of global debt. Could this global debt potentially trip up the global recovery? Is it unlikely to be tackled in the short term, and therefore less threatening? Or is it a headwind that risk-aware investors should account for? This commentary paper looks at the debt issue, including the current state of the overhang, what it may portend, and practical portfolio considerations in a debt-laden market.

Read the paper


The views expressed represent the Manager's assessment of the market environment as of March 2018, and should not be considered a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security, and should not be relied on as research or investment advice. Views are subject to change without notice and may not reflect the Manager's views.

IMPORTANT RISK CONSIDERATIONS

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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