Field guide to economic birding: Hawks, doves, and tweets

With a hawkish Federal Reserve, cooling global economies, and a rise in trade protectionism after four decades of globalization, financial markets felt the brunt of volatility in 2018 before the first quarter of 2019 saw the Fed change course. But it was only a short period of calm before a US presidential tweet storm regarding trade and China reignited trade concerns and questioned the Fed’s future path. In their quarterly macro economic outlook, “Field guide to economic birding: Hawks, doves, and tweets,” the Global Multi-Asset team explores this environment and what it means for investors.

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IMPORTANT RISK CONSIDERATIONS

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.

The views expressed represent the Manager's assessment of the market environment as of July 2019, and should not be considered a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security, and should not be relied on as research or investment advice. Views are subject to change without notice and may not reflect the Manager's views.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

International investments entail risks not ordinarily associated with US investments including fluctuation in currency values, differences in accounting principles, or economic or political instability in other nations.

Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in established foreign markets due to increased volatility and lower trading volume.

Fixed income securities and bond funds can lose value, and investors can lose principal, as interest rates rise. They also may be affected by economic conditions that hinder an issuer’s ability to make interest and principal payments on its debt. Fixed income securities may also be subject to prepayment risk, the risk that the principal of a bond that is held by a portfolio will be prepaid prior to maturity, at the time when interest rates are lower than what the bond was paying. A portfolio may then have to reinvest that money at a lower interest rate.


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