Bonds are bonds again Income and return predictability

Bonds are bonds again: Income and return predictability

Holding a diversified portfolio of bonds can bring a high degree of predictability to returns, similar to how an individual bond, if held to maturity, earns its expected yield. Despite a volatile economic and market backdrop throughout 2023, investors who held a diversified portfolio of bonds ended the year earning a return slightly above the year’s starting yield.

The chart below shows the January 2023 starting yield of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index and the average Core-Plus fund compared to their total return at year-end. In both cases, the difference between the two is less than 0.8%.

The predictive power of bond yields on display

The predictive power of bond yields on display

Source: Morningstar.

What this means for investors

Bond yields remain elevated, near their highest levels since 2008, offering what we view as an attractive entry point for investors. Actively managed core-plus bond funds benefit from exposure to higher yielding areas of fixed income and currently offer yields above 5%. The combination of a diversified bond portfolio and higher yields can offer investors stability and the potential for greater returns.


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Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Chart is for illustrative purposes and is not representative of the performance of any specific investment.

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