By
Derek Hamilton
August 05, 2025
US tariff rates have risen dramatically, with the Trump administration’s most recent trade agreements leading to an effective tariff rate of more than 15%. This compares with 2.3% at the end of 2024. US tariff revenue totaled $105 billion year to date through mid-July, more than double last year’s pace, and appears primed to accelerate as further tariff increases are implemented this year.
Administration officials have recently commented that tariffs are not pushing prices higher. Indeed, the core US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen only 0.1-0.2% in each of the past three months. However, we believe many companies may have front loaded their purchase of imports ahead of any potential tariff increases, allowing them to delay raising prices despite higher tariff rates. Still, we see growing signs of tariff-induced price increases in certain segments of the economy.
While prices for services have been relatively contained over the past few months, goods prices have begun to rise, after being stable to down in 2023 and 2024. Several categories of goods expected to be affected by higher tariffs saw larger-than-normal price increases in June, as shown in the chart below, with some seeing their largest increase in many years. We believe these early signs of tariff costs being passed on to consumers will become more apparent in the coming months.
US Consumer Price Index, select goods categories (June 2025)
Month-over-month % change
Sources: Macquarie, Macrobond, US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
[4716628 7/25]
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The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of inflation that is calculated by the US Department of Labor, representing changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. “Core” CPI excludes certain goods and services with high price volatility, such as food and energy.
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