The Way Forward 2019 Global Investment Outlook

Our investment managers from around the world give their perspective on markets, asset classes, and the possible shape of things to come.

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Inside the Outlook

Our boutique managers are known for independent thinking and, at times, contrarian views. Below is a by-the-numbers taste of what’s come up in Outlook commentaries — recurring themes that can cascade to investors everywhere.

In emerging markets growth, China is a big driver

Emerging markets growth

Emerging markets as share of world GDP
Emerging markets as share of world GDP
2018
2035e
0
0
China as share of world GDP
China as share of world GDP
2018
2035e
0
0

Source: World Bank, data through Q3 2018. e=estimate

Forces like globalization, social development, and policy transparency are driving the maturation of emerging markets (EM). China’s economic success contributes vastly to EM’s growing share of global economic activity. Still an EM country by per capita gross domestic product (GDP), China’s growth is one key catalyst in EM potentially becoming a massive investment opportunity set. Discover more about emerging market trends.

Technology and energy are tipping points

Growth of electric vehicle market

Millions of vehicles
Millions of vehicles
2015
2018e
2030e
0
0
0

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. e=estimate

Technology and energy innovation bring constant change, and electric vehicle (EV) growth worldwide is a strong example. Developed countries are adopting ride-hailing services in the near term, while the anticipated convergence of EVs with self-driving and robotic vehicles has broad implications for energy, infrastructure, mobility, and our future. Discover where these trends may lead.

Volatility surfaces as stimulus recedes

Central banks have propped up global markets for years. As low rates fade, several big-picture structural challenges to the global economy have reappeared, contributing to market volatility and posing a challenge to global growth. Explore some of these headwinds — and their potential implications for investors.

Demographics

Demographics

A shrinking workforce to support retirees
Number of workers per retiree in the US
2018
2050e
2100e
0
0
0

Source: United Nations. e=estimate

The world is expected to have 2.1 billion people aged 60 or above by 2050 (source: United Nations). But aging populations can be projected to especially affect resource demands and public policy in developed countries as the younger workforce diminishes. Learn how demographics are impacting capital markets, politics, and investing worldwide.

Digitalization

Digitalization

Automating work
Time spent on work activities that can be automated today*
Management work
Data collection
Predictable physical tasks
0
0
0

Source: McKinsey & Company. December 2017.

*For a full range of work categories and more on workforce automation, see Jobs lost, jobs gained: Workforce transitions in a time of automation, McKinsey Global Institute, December 2017.

Digitalization is disrupting everything, but especially lower-skilled jobs. Three broad categories of work tasks may be at the highest risk of automation, per McKinsey research. Learn to discuss how these trends are impacting markets and the economy.

Debt

Debt

A hefty share
Combined, these countries hold two-thirds of global debt
France
Italy
China
Japan
US
0
0
0
0
0

Source: International Monetary Fund. June 2018

Global government debt hit a high of $63 trillion in Q2 2018, per the International Monetary Fund. Together, the five countries shown here hold 66% of the world’s debt in nominal terms – or $41.6 trillion. Learn how this debt is impacting capital markets worldwide.

About the authors

Equity

11 investment professionals contributed

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Fixed income

19 investment professionals contributed

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Alternatives

12 investment professionals contributed

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